New CJC Report on Measure 11

This wikilog article is a draft, it was not published yet.

by: Abassos • March 10, 2011 • no comments

An interesting longitudinal study on Measure 11 was released today by the Criminal Justice Commission. Steve Doell's official response to the report was that it was slanted to "push a political agenda, which is anti-Measure 11, anti-incarceration, anti-law enforcement and anti-victims". That makes a longitudinal study sound a little more interesting, no? The conclusion section revealing the truth of Measure 11 is presumably what has Mr. Doell so riled:

"In conclusion, M11 did not eliminate the tough choices about what the appropriate sentence is in a specific case. It did change who makes that decision from the judge to the prosecutor. It did eliminate the structure the guidelines gave for guiding these tough decisions in cases involving a M11 charge. . . Usually, the executive branch discretion is controlled by adherence to objective criteria that are the basis of discretion. The judicial branch is normally given broader discretion. M11 flipped this dynamic for sentencing on Oregon's most serious offenses. M11 did not take away the difficult decisions, it simply moved the decision making power from the judge to the prosecutor."

Here's the study.

Here's an Oregonian article about the "political firestorm" that erupted in response to the study .

The following findings were made by the study:

• The typical M11 offender is white (74 percent), male (91 percent), adult (89 percent) and has no adult felony convictions. Only 30 percent have been previously convicted of a felony, 15 percent have been convicted of a person felony and 15 percent have been previously incarcerated at an Oregon prison.
• In 2009, offenders who were charged by a grand jury with at least one M11 crime, and were convicted of that crime or a lesser felony made up 34 percent of prison intakes, and 64 percent of all prison months imposed.
• Statewide, 29 percent of offenders charged by a grand jury with committing at least one M11 offense were convicted of the most serious crime in the grand jury indictment. Sixty-two percent of offenders indicted for at least one M11 crime were sentenced to prison.
• M11 is applied differently across counties. In the five most populous counties, Multnomah County convicts the lowest percentage of M11 indicted offenders for a M11 crime at 36 percent, while Marion County convicts 63 percent. Counties apply M11 differently, and those differences are statistically significant even after controlling for other factors such as age, gender, race, and criminal history. Offenders indicted for a M11 in one of the five most populous counties are 79 percent more likely to be convicted of a M11 and twice as likely to receive a prison sentence as offenders in the other 31 counties. (This is counter to the prevailing myth that officials in counties in Eastern Oregon, away from Oregon's four largest cities, would be more likely to convict of the most serious offense carrying the longest sentence.)
• M11 is applied differently across demographics. Juveniles and females indicted for a M11 are both less likely to receive a M11 conviction. These differences are statistically significant with juveniles and females both being about 20 percent less likely to be convicted of a M11. M11 conviction rates also differ by ethnicity. Blacks who are indicted for a M11 are about 15 percent less likely to be sentenced to prison than whites, and Hispanics are about 40 percent more likely to be sentenced to prison than whites.
• M11 indicted offenders who go to trial are nearly four times more likely to be convicted of a M11.
• M11 indicted offenders who have a private attorney are about 25 percent less likely to be convicted of a M11.
• A M11 indicted offender's criminal history is important in determining whether they are convicted of a M11. A M11 indicted offender with three or more prior person felonies is nearly twice as likely to be convicted of a M11.
• Upon the passage of M11, fewer M11 indicted offenders were convicted of their most serious offense. During the 1990s, offenders who were subject to M11 were 34 percent less likely to be convicted of their most serious offense than those who committed crimes before the passage of M11.
• Upon the passage of M11, M11 indicted offenders were much more likely to go to prison and more likely to receive a longer prison sentence. Offenders who were subject to M11 were 36 percent more likely to go to prison and their median length of stay in prison was 81 percent longer.
• If Oregon voters had not passed M11, Oregon would require an estimated 2,900 fewer prison beds, about one third of the initial official estimate.
• Senate Bill 1049 (1997), which allowed guidelines sentences for some M11 offenses, had little or no impact on the prison population. The prison months imposed for indicted offenders changed very little after passage of the law.