An Inverse Relationship Between Perceptions of Gov't Legitimacy and Crime
by: Ryan • October 6, 2011 • no comments
Here is a fascinating article about one particular theory regarding falling crime rates, which has been going on for some time and has largely continued through the recession. The article offhandedly mentions some of the other theories (including the elimination of lead paint), but it focuses specifically on the idea that the perception of a competent gov't that shares and furthers the interests of its people has the effect of reducing crime. The reverse is true when the the gov't loses legitimacy and crime rises, as in the early '70s. On top of that, it posits that Obama in particular improves perceptions of gov't within the African-American community, as well as raising African-American confidence in the future, and therefore, some argue, Obama is a partial cause for the continuing fall in black crime since the start of the recession.
In contrast, states with a high percentage of people who doubt Obama's legitimacy (e.g., birthers) have seen crime increase since his election.
This is all largely speculation, in large part because of its inherent unprovability. But a healthy and interesting speculation nonetheless. And a number of the trends are fascinating, even if we aren't anywhere near distinguishing the correlative from the causal. Ultimately, there may be too much statistical noise to ever have confidence in the truth of these theories, but I'm glad people are pursuing it.
