https://libraryofdefense.ocdla.org/index.php?title=Blog:Main/Head-Counting_US_v_Alleyne:_Updated&feed=atom&action=historyBlog:Main/Head-Counting US v Alleyne: Updated - Revision history2024-03-29T00:14:00ZRevision history for this page on the wikiMediaWiki 1.19.24https://libraryofdefense.ocdla.org/index.php?title=Blog:Main/Head-Counting_US_v_Alleyne:_Updated&diff=12660&oldid=prevAdmin1: Text replace - "| Ryan }}" to "| Ryan:Ryan Scott }}"2013-08-09T19:05:10Z<p>Text replace - "| Ryan }}" to "| Ryan:Ryan Scott }}"</p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Overall, I'd say the odds are not bad.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Overall, I'd say the odds are not bad.</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Update: It appears that I was too quick in discounting Breyer as a possible flip. Evidence that he may even be likely to vote to overrule Harris can be found [<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">https</del>:<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">//libraryofdefense.org</del>/SCOTUSblog_on_the_Alleyne_cert_grant:_Updated here].</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Update: It appears that I was too quick in discounting Breyer as a possible flip. Evidence that he may even be likely to vote to overrule Harris can be found [<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[Blog</ins>:<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Main</ins>/SCOTUSblog_on_the_Alleyne_cert_grant:_Updated<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">|</ins>here<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">]</ins>] .</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>A little inside baseball, for those of you who like this sort of thing.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>A little inside baseball, for those of you who like this sort of thing.</div></td></tr>
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<p><b>New page</b></p><div>Update: It appears that I was too quick in discounting Breyer as a possible flip. Evidence that he may even be likely to vote to overrule Harris can be found [https://libraryofdefense.org/SCOTUSblog_on_the_Alleyne_cert_grant:_Updated here].<br />
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A little inside baseball, for those of you who like this sort of thing.<br />
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''US v. Harris'' was a 5-4 decision. Four justices have since retired, 2 from the majority, 2 from the dissent. They have been replaced by Kagan, Sotomayor, Alito and Roberts. I don't know offhand what Kagan and Sotomayor think of ''Blakely'' generally, but let's assume they are inclined to rule on the pro-''Blakely''-side of the ledger.<br />
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That would mean that either Alito or Roberts would need to vote on the pro-''Blakely'' side for ''Harris ''to be overruled.<br />
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My impression is that Alito has no interest in extending ''Blakely'', and he'd probably like to roll it back. He dissented in ''Southern Union'' and he was in the majority in ''Oregon v. Ice''.<br />
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Roberts was the opposite. Majority in ''Southern Union'' and minority in ''Oregon v. Ice''. So Roberts seems pretty pro-''Blakely''.<br />
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The three remaining members of the ''Harris'' majority are Scalia, Breyer and Kennedy. Breyer and Kennedy pretty strongly dislike ''Blakely''. Scalia is passionately pro-''Blakely'', but clearly didn't believe it applied to mandatory minimums. But if anyone was going to flip, it would be Scalia.<br />
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Would stare decisis cause a dissenter from Harris to flip? Not impossible. Stevens was a dissenter in ''Almendarez-Torres'' and rumor has it, even after there was a majority to overule the case, he never voted to grant cert, since he felt it was decided and done. Stevens is gone, but the principle may carry some weight with the others.<br />
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Overall, I'd say the odds are not bad.<br />
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