Crime keeps on dropping in NYC
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by: Ryan Scott • December 28, 2017 • no comments
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:I should note that the lead-crime hypothesis predicted this. In fact, [http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/11/no-crime-not-going-start-soaring-under-bill-de-blasio/ I did predict this four years ago.] As long as lead poisoning rates stay low, there’s simply no reason to think that crime rates will change dramatically because of stop-and-frisk or anything else. | :I should note that the lead-crime hypothesis predicted this. In fact, [http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/11/no-crime-not-going-start-soaring-under-bill-de-blasio/ I did predict this four years ago.] As long as lead poisoning rates stay low, there’s simply no reason to think that crime rates will change dramatically because of stop-and-frisk or anything else. | ||
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| + | :Lead is no longer significantly responsible for changes in crime rates. That happened between 1990-2010 as the number of lead-poisoned children plummeted. But everyone under 30 today was born in a low-lead environment, and there’s not much lower for things to go. So when you see crime spikes either upward (Chicago) or downward (New York) it has nothing to do with lead exposure. Other factors are now far more at play. | ||
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| + | :However, what you can say is that, generally, low crime rates are here to stay. Better or worse policing can change things at the margin, but we’re just not ever going back to the 70s and 80s. Thanks, EPA! | ||
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| + | By the way, the NY Times also published this story: [https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/27/us/epa-lead-paint.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news E.P.A. Wanted Years to Study Lead Paint Rule. It Got 90 Days.] Key quote: | ||
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| + | :A federal appeals court on Wednesday ordered the Environmental Protection Agency to revise its nearly 17-year-old standard for dangerous levels of lead in paint and dust within one year, a rare legal move that amounts to a sharp rebuff of President Trump and Scott Pruitt, the E.P.A. administrator. | ||
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| + | :The decision also called attention to the persistent threat of lead paint to children in millions of American homes, four decades after the federal government banned it from households. | ||
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{{wl-publish: 2017-12-28 11:51:35 -0800 | Ryan@ryanscottlaw.com:Ryan Scott }} | {{wl-publish: 2017-12-28 11:51:35 -0800 | Ryan@ryanscottlaw.com:Ryan Scott }} | ||
Latest revision as of 12:54, December 29, 2017
New York Times story here. Key quote:
- The continued declines are a boon to Mr. de Blasio, a Democrat elected on promises of police reform — promises that prompted warnings of mayhem to come by his opponents in 2013. But the opposite has happened, putting him on stronger footing as he pivots to a second term with a Police Department transformed to exercise greater restraint as it focuses on building trust in the city’s neighborhoods.
Kevin Drum's observation about the news here. Key quote:
- I should note that the lead-crime hypothesis predicted this. In fact, I did predict this four years ago. As long as lead poisoning rates stay low, there’s simply no reason to think that crime rates will change dramatically because of stop-and-frisk or anything else.
- Lead is no longer significantly responsible for changes in crime rates. That happened between 1990-2010 as the number of lead-poisoned children plummeted. But everyone under 30 today was born in a low-lead environment, and there’s not much lower for things to go. So when you see crime spikes either upward (Chicago) or downward (New York) it has nothing to do with lead exposure. Other factors are now far more at play.
- However, what you can say is that, generally, low crime rates are here to stay. Better or worse policing can change things at the margin, but we’re just not ever going back to the 70s and 80s. Thanks, EPA!
By the way, the NY Times also published this story: E.P.A. Wanted Years to Study Lead Paint Rule. It Got 90 Days. Key quote:
- A federal appeals court on Wednesday ordered the Environmental Protection Agency to revise its nearly 17-year-old standard for dangerous levels of lead in paint and dust within one year, a rare legal move that amounts to a sharp rebuff of President Trump and Scott Pruitt, the E.P.A. administrator.
- The decision also called attention to the persistent threat of lead paint to children in millions of American homes, four decades after the federal government banned it from households.
